PRMIA 8008 Practice Verified Answers - Pass Your Exams For Sure! [2021]
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NEW QUESTION 184
The sum of the stand alone economic capital of all the business units of a bank is:
- A. unrelated to the economic capital for the firm as a whole
- B. more than the economic capital for the firm as a whole
- C. less than the economic capital for the firm as a whole
- D. equal to the economic capital for the firm as a whole
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
Economic capital is sub-additive, ie, because of the correlation being less than perfect between the risks of the different business units, the total economic capital for the firm will be less than the sum of the EC for the individual business units. Therefore Choice 'b' is the correct answer.
In practice, correlations are difficult to estimate reliably, and banks often use estimates and corroborate their capital calculations with reference to a number of data points.
NEW QUESTION 185
For credit risk calculations, correlation between the asset values of two issuers is often proxied with:
- A. Credit migration matrices
- B. Equity correlations
- C. Default correlations
- D. Transition probabilities
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
Asset returns are relevant for credit risk models where a default is related to the value of the assets of the firm falling below the default threshold. When assessing credit risk for portfolios with multiple credit assets, it becomes necessary to know the asset correlations of the different firms. Since this data is rarely available, it is very common to approximate asset correlations using equity prices. Equity correlations are used as proxies for asset correlation, therefore Choice 'c' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION 186
Which of the following statements are true:
I. Common scenarios for stress tests include the 1997 Asian crisis, the Russian default in 1998 and other well known economic stress situations.
II. Stress tests provide the assurance that an institution's worst case losses will be covered.
III. Performing stress tests is highly recommended but is not mandated under Basel II.
IV. Historical events can be modeled quite accurately as they have defined start and end dates.
- A. I only
- B. I, III and IV
- C. All of the above
- D. I and II
Answer: A
Explanation:
Explanation
Stress tests can cover known events, but since the future is unknown, and new events may be entirely different from what has happened in the past, they provide no assurance that an institution's worst case losses would be covered. Hence II is false.
Stress testing is required to be performed as part of Basel II, and therefore III is false.
Historical events do not have sharply defined start and end dates. Often, even after a crises ends, its after effects may continue to affect the markets for a long time. In such cases, it may be difficult to define the start and end of the crises. In many cases, the crises may persist for months or even years, making it difficult for the risk manager to identify a time period that covers the essence of the crises, and yet is focused enough to constitute a plausible scenario. Therefore IV is false too. Only I is true, and the correct answer is Choice 'b'.
NEW QUESTION 187
Which of the following belong to the family of generalized extreme value distributions:
I. Frechet
II. Gumbel
III. Weibull
IV. Exponential
- A. II and III
- B. IV
- C. All of the above
- D. I, II and III
Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation
Extreme value theory focuses on the extreme and rare events, and in the case of VaR calculations, it is focused on the right tail of the loss distribution. In very simple and non-technical terms, EVT says the following:
1. Pull a number of large iid random samples from the population,
2. For each sample, find the maximum,
3. Then the distribution of these maximum values will follow a Generalized Extreme Value distribution.
(In some ways, it is parallel to the central limit theorem which says that the the mean of a large number of random samples pulled from any population follows a normal distribution, regardless of the distribution of the underlying population.) Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions have three parameters: (shape parameter), (location parameter) and (scale parameter). Based upon the value of , a GEV distribution may either be a Frechet, Weibull or a Gumbel. These are the only three types of extreme value distributions.
NEW QUESTION 188
Which of the following belong in a credit risk report?
- A. Exposures by country
- B. All of the above
- C. Exposures by industry
- D. Largest exposures by counterparty
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
All the listed variables are relevant to management monitoring the credit risk profile of an institution, therefore Choice 'd' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION 189
Which of the following introduces model error when basing VaR on a normal distribution with a static mean and standard deviation?
- A. Autocorrelation of squared returns
- B. All of the above
- C. Volatility clustering
- D. Heavy tails
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
When VaR is based on an assumption of normality with a static mean and volatility, it means anything that violates these assumptions will introduce model error. Volatility clustering implies a non-static volatility.
Heavy tails imply non-normality of the shape of the distribution. Autocorrelation of squared returns implies that returns are not independent and identically distributed. Therefore all of these introduce model error.
Choice 'd' is therefore the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION 190
Which of the following represents a riskier exposure for a bank: A LIBOR based loan, or an Overnight Indexed Swap? Which of the two rates is expected to be higher?
Assume the same counterparty and the same notional.
- A. A LIBOR based loan; OIS rate will be higher
- B. Overnight Index Swap; LIBOR rate will be higher
- C. A LIBOR based loan; LIBOR rate will be higher
- D. Overnight Index Swap; OIS rate will be higher
Answer: C
Explanation:
Explanation
A LIBOR based loan requires cash to move from the lender to the borrower in the amount of the notional. The Overnight Index Swap requires only the exchange of interest payments, and therefore represents less risk.
Therefore the LIBOR based loan is a riskier exposure.
The LIBOR is generally higher than the OIS. In fact, the difference between the two, the LIBOR-OIS spread, is a standard measure of the risk premium in the market that goes up when the risk of default by counterparty banks is considered high. This is because when the market perceives the risk of default to be high, the participants need a risk premium to take on the default risk which is considerably lesser with the OIS.
NEW QUESTION 191
Which of the following is true in relation to a Contingency Funding Plan (CFP)?
I. A CFP is like a disaster recovery plan to deal with a liquidity crisis II. A CFP should consider market stress conditions, but failures of payment systems are not relevant as they fall under the remit of operational risk III. Reputational damage may result if the market finds out that a firm has had to execute its CFP IV. Sources of emergency funding considered in the CFP should include the role of the central bank as the lender of last resort
- A. II and IV
- B. IV
- C. I, II and III
- D. I and III
Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation
A CFP is indeed a disaster recovery plan to deal with a liquidity crisis. Therefore statement I is correct.
A CFP should consider market stress conditions, including wide scale failures of payment and settlement systems. Statement II is not correct.
It is true that reputational damage may result if a firm has to activate its CFP - therefore the plan should consider internal and external communications, the timing of information release and the groups within the firm who need to know about the implementation of the plan. Reputational damage can only make any existing liquidity problems worse. Statement III is correct.
Sources of emergency funding should not include funding from the central bank - unless as part of a regular lending facility. Its role as a lender of last resort can not be considered in a CFP. Statement IV is incorrect.
Therefore only statements I and III are correct.
NEW QUESTION 192
The CDS rate on a defaultable bond is approximated by which of the following expressions:
- A. Hazard rate / (1 - Recovery rate)
- B. Hazard rate x Recovery rate
- C. Loss given default x Default hazard rate
- D. Credit spread x Loss given default
Answer: C
Explanation:
Explanation
The CDS rate is approximated by the [Loss given default x Default hazard rate]. Thus Choice 'b' is the correct answer.
Note that this is also equal to the credit spread on the reference bond over the risk free rate. Therefore credit spreads and CDS rates are generally the same. Also, 'loss given default' is nothing but (1 - Recovery rate). This can be substituted in the formula for the credit spread to get an alternative expression that directly refers to the recovery rate. Therefore all other choices are incorrect.
NEW QUESTION 193
Which of the following are ordered correctly in the order of debt seniority in a bankruptcy situation?
I. Equity, Subordinate debt, Senior debt
II. Senior debt, Preferred stock, Equity
III. Secured debt, Accounts payable, Preferred stock
IV. Secured debt, DIP financing, Equity
- A. II and III
- B. I and IV
- C. I
- D. II, III and IV
Answer: A
Explanation:
Explanation
In a bankruptcy, equity ranks last. Preferred equity is one level above equity. Senior debt gets paid out first compared to junior debt, and secured debt is paid out first to the extent of the asset securing it (after which it counts as unsecured debt). Accounts payable and other short term liabilities are treated like unsecured creditors. Debtor-in-possession (DIP) financing ranks higher than any other asset as it is financing secured after the bankruptcy to continue the business.
Based on the above, statement I does not represent a correct ordering of seniority as equity is paid last.
Similarly, DIP financing receives higher priority than even secured debt, and therefore statement IV is incorrect. Therefore the only correct statements are II and III and Choice 'a' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION 194
Which of the following statements are true with respect to stress testing:
I. Stress testing results in a dollar estimate of losses
II. The results of stress testing can replace VaR as a measure of risk as they are better grounded in reality III. Stress testing provides an estimate of losses at a desired level of confidence IV. Stress testing based on factor shocks can allow modeling extreme events that have not occurred in the past
- A. II and III
- B. I, II and IV
- C. II, III and IV
- D. I and IV
Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation
Any stress test is conducted with a view to produce a dollar estimate of losses, therefore statement I is correct.
However, these numbers do not come with any probabilities or confidence levels, unlike VaR, and statement III is incorrect. Stress testing can complement VaR, but not replace it, therefore statement II is not correct.
Statement IV is correct as stress tests can be based on both actual historical events, or simulated factor shocks (eg, a factor, such as interest rates, moves by say 10-z).
Therefore Choice 'a' is correct.
NEW QUESTION 195
Which of the following statements is true in relation to a normal mixture distribution:
I. Normal mixtures represent one possible solution to the problem of volatility clustering II. A normal mixture VaR will always be greater than that under the assumption of normally distributed returns III. Normal mixtures can be applied to situations where a number of different market scenarios with different probabilities can be expected
- A. II and III
- B. I, II and III
- C. I and II
- D. III
Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation
Normal mixtures address fat or heavy tails, not volatility clustering. Therefore statement I is not correct.
Statement II is not correct. Where VaR is calculated at low levels of confidence, VaR based on normal mixtures may be lower than that under a normal assumption. This is no different than for other fat tailed distributions.
Statement III is correct. In situations where multiple market scenarios can unfold with a given probability, and each scenario is normal, we can express the result with a normal mixture where the underlying normal distributions have the probabilities of the different scenarios.
NEW QUESTION 196
Concentration risk in a credit portfolio arises due to:
- A. A high degree of correlation between the default probabilities of the credit securities in the portfolio
- B. Independence of individual default losses for the assets in the portfolio
- C. Issuers of the securities in the portfolio being located in the same country
- D. A low degree of correlation between the default probabilities of the credit securities in the portfolio
Answer: C
Explanation:
Explanation
Concentration risk in a credit portfolio arises due to a high degree of correlation between the default probabilities of the issuers of securities in the portfolio. For example, the fortunes of the issuers in the same industry may be highly correlated, and an investor exposed to multiple such borrowers may face 'concentration risk'.
A low degree of correlation, or independence of individual defaults in the portfolio actually reduces or even eliminates concentration risk.
The fact that issuers are from the same country may not necessarily give rise to concentration risk - for example, a bank with all US based borrowers in different industries or with different retail exposure types may not face practically any concentration risk. What really matters is the default correlations between the borrowers, for example a lender exposed to cement producers across the globe may face a high degree of concentration risk.
NEW QUESTION 197
Which of the following does not affect the credit risk facing a lender institution?
- A. The degree of geographical or sectoral concentration in the loan book
- B. Credit ratings of individual borrowers
- C. The state of the economy
- D. The applicability or otherwise of mark to market accounting to the institution
Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation
The state of the economy, credit quality of individual borrowers and concentration risk are all factors that affect the credit risk facing a lender. Mark to market accounting does not change the credit risk, or the underlying economic reality facing the institution. Therefore Choice 'b' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION 198
According to the Basel II framework, subordinated term debt that was originally issued 4 years ago with a maturity of 6 years is considered a part of:
- A. Tier 1 capital
- B. Tier 2 capital
- C. None of the above
- D. Tier 3 capital
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
According to the Basel II framework, Tier 1 capital, also called core capital or basic equity, includes equity capital and disclosed reserves.
Tier 2 capital, also called supplementary capital, includes undisclosed reserves, revaluation reserves, general provisions/general loan-loss reserves, hybrid debt capital instruments and subordinated term debt issued originally for 5 years or longer.
Tier 3 capital, or short term subordinated debt, is intended only to cover market risk but only at the discretion of their national authority. This only includes short term subordinated debt originally issued for 2 or more years.
An interesting thing to note is the difference between 'subordinated term debt' under Tier 2 and the 'short term subordinated debt' under Tier 3. The distinction is based upon the years to maturity at the time the debt was issued. The remaining time to maturity is not relevant. For the subordinated term debt included under Tier 2, the amount that can be counted towards capital is reduced by 20% for every year when the debt is due within 5 years. This takes care of the time to maturity problem for Tier 2 subordinated debt. For Tier 3 short term subordinated debt, this is not an issue because debt will only qualify for Tier 3 if it has a lock-in clause stipulating that the debt is not required to be repaid if the effect of such repayment is to take the bank below minimum capital requirements.
NEW QUESTION 199
As the persistence parameter under EWMA is lowered, which of the following would be true:
- A. The model will react slower to market shocks
- B. High variance from the recent past will persist for longer
- C. The model will give lower weight to recent returns
- D. The model will react faster to market shocks
Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation
The persistence parameter, , is the coefficient of the prior day's variance in EWMA calculations. A higher value of the persistence parameter tends to 'persist' the prior value of variance for longer. Consider an extreme example - if the persistence parameter is equal to 1, the variance under EWMA will never change in response to returns.
1 - is the coefficient of recent market returns. As is lowered, 1 - increases, giving a greater weight to recent market returns or shocks. Therefore, as is lowered, the model will react faster to market shocks and give higher weights to recent returns, and at the same time reduce the weight on prior variance which will tend to persist for a shorter period.
NEW QUESTION 200
The difference between true severity and the best approximation of the true severity is called:
- A. Fitting error
- B. Total error
- C. Approximation error
- D. Estimation error
Answer: C
Explanation:
Explanation
This question relates to fitting a distribution to the true severity of the operational risk loss we are trying to model. The quality of the fit, or the precision of the fit, has two elements to the difference between the severity as represented by our model and the true severity. To understand this, consider the three data points below:
a. The true severity,
b. The best approximation of the true severity in the model space, and
c. The fit based on the dataset.
- True severity is what we are trying to model.
- The model space refers to the collection of analytical distributions (log-normal, burr etc) that we are considering to arrive at the estimate of the severity.
- The 'best approximation of the true severity in the model space' is reached by estimating the parameters of the distribution that optimizes the risk functional.
- The 'fit' is the actual parameter estimates we settle for with the distribution we have determined best fits the true estimate of our severity. When estimating parameters, we have various methods available for estimation - the least squares method, the maximum likelihood method, for example, and we can get different estimates depending upon the method we choose to use.
Our severity model will be different from the true severity, and the total difference can be split into two types of errors:
1. Fitting error, represented by 'c - b' above: The difference between the fit based on the dataset and the best approximation of the true severity is called 'fitting error', ie, a measure of the extent to which we could have estimated the parameters better.
2. Approximation error, represented by 'b - a' above: Approximation error is the difference between the true severity, and the best approximation of the true severity that can be achieved within the model space is called
'approximation error'.
One can reduce the approximation error by expanding the model space by adding more distributions. This will reduce the approximation error, but generally has the effect of increasing the fitting error because the complexity of the model space increases, and there are more ways to fit to the true severity.
NEW QUESTION 201
Assuming all other factors remain the same, an increase in the volatility of the returns on the assets of a firm causes which of the following outcomes?
- A. An increase in the value of the equity of the firm
- B. A decrease in the value of the non-callable debt issued by the firm
- C. A decrease in the value of the implicit put in in the debt of the firm
- D. An increase in the value of the callable debt of the firm
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
Some parts of this question draw upon contingent claims framework to the value of a firm. According to this framework, the relationship between the debt and equity holders of a firm can be viewed as follows: The equity holders have a call option on the assets of the firm with a strike price equal to the value of the debt, and the debt holders have sold them this call. This is so because should the value of the assets of the firm fall below the value of the debt, the equity holders can walk away by handing over the assets to the debt holders in full extinguishment of their claims. If the value of the firm's assets is greater than the value of debt, the equity holders will exercise their call option. At the same time, it is also possible to view the debtholders as holding an asset and having sold a put on the assets of the firm with a strike price equal to the value of the debt. If the value of the assets of the firm were to fall below the value of the debt, they will end up buying the assets at a price equal to the value of the debt.
An increase in the volatility of returns on the assets of a firm increases the volatility of the asset value. This means the likelihood that the asset value will go below the value of the debt of the firm will increase. Callable debt can be considered to be a summation of two separate securities: a regular debt, for which the firm pays interest and receives a principal loan; and a call option that the debt holders have sold to the firm allowing the firm to buy back the debt. In return, the firm pays an implied 'premium' to the debt holders who have agreed to buy the callable debt. Therefore the total payments by the company to callable debt holders is equal to the interest payments plus the premium payment for the option. An increase in asset volatility will increase the value of this option as it is likely that the assets will increase in value, and strengthen the company's credit, and lower its spread at which time it would like to repay the debt and refinance/roll over at the new lower rate.
Therefore an increase in volatility will increase the 'premium' demanded by the callable debt holders, thereby increasing the total yield and lowering the value of the callable debt. Therefore Choice 'b' (An increase in the value of the callable debt of the firm) is incorrect.
An increase in asset volatility will decrease the value of the firm as it is now riskier than before (higher standard deviation, same expected returns). Therefore Choice 'a' (An increase in the value of the equity of the firm) is false too.
The value of the implicit put in the debt of the firm will increase and not decrease as the volatility of the underlying assets increases. Therefore Choice 'c' (A decrease in the value of the implicit put in in the debt of the firm) is incorrect too.
Choice 'd' (A decrease in the value of the non-callable debt issued by the firm) is correct because higher asset volatility will increase the riskiness of the company's debt, making the required yield higher and decreasing its value.
NEW QUESTION 202
The VaR of a portfolio at the 99% confidence level is $250,000 when mean return is assumed to be zero. If the assumption of zero returns is changed to an assumption of returns of $10,000, what is the revised VaR?
- A. 0
- B. 1
- C. 2
- D. 3
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
The exact formula for VaR is = -(Z + ), where Z is the z-multiple for the desired confidence level, and is the mean return. Now Z is always a negative number, or at least will certainly be provided the desired confidence level is greater than 50%, and is often assumed to be zero because generally for the short time periods for which market risk VaR is calculated, its value is very close to zero.
Therefore in practice the formula for VaR just becomes -Z, and since Z is always negative, we normally just multiply the Z factor without the negative sign with the standard deviation to get the VaR.
For this question, there are two ways to get the answer. If we use the formula, we know that -Z= 250,000 (as
=0), and therefore -Z - = 250,000 - 10,000 = $240,000.
The other, easier way to think about this is that if the mean changes, then the distribution's shape stays exactly the same, and the entire distribution shifts to the right by $10,000 as the mean moves up by $10,000. Therefore the VaR cutoff, which was previously at -250,000 on the graph also moves up by 10k to -240,000, and therefore $240,000 is the correct answer.
The other choices are intended to confuse by multiplying the z-factor for the 99% confidence level with
10,000 etc.
NEW QUESTION 203
Under the actuarial (or CreditRisk+) based modeling of defaults, what is the probability of 4 defaults in a retail portfolio where the number of expected defaults is 2?
- A. 4%
- B. 18%
- C. 2%
- D. 9%
Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation
The actuarial or CreditRisk+ model considers default as an 'end of game' event modeled by a Poisson distribution. The annual number of defaults is a stochastic variable with a mean of and standard deviation equal to .
The probability of n defaults is given by (^n e^-) /n!, and therefore in this case is equal to (=2^4 * exp(-2))/FACT(4)) = 0.0902.
Note that CreditRisk+ is the same methodology as the actuarial approach, and requires using the Poisson distribution.
NEW QUESTION 204
Which of the following statements are true:
I. It is usual to set a very high confidence level when estimating VaR for capital requirements.
II. For model validation, very high VaR confidence levels are used to minimize excess losses.
III. For limit setting for managing day to day positions, it is usual to set VaR confidence levels that are neither too low to be exceeded too often, nor too high as to be never exceeded.
IV. The Basel accord requirements for market risk capital require the use of a time horizon of 1 year.
- A. II and III
- B. I and IV
- C. I and III
- D. III and IV
Answer: C
Explanation:
Explanation
This questions deals with the appropriate levels of the holding period and confidence levels for VaR estimates.
These depend upon the use the VaR estimate is intended to be put to - so when calculating VaR levels for capital requirements, or for maintaining credit ratings, very high levels of confidence are generally used. On the contrary, when setting limits or validating a model, a few excess loss situations are not only acceptable but actually desirable, and therefore lower levels of confidence are used.When it comes to the holding period, that may be mandated, as it is under Basel II as being a 10 day period. For other cases, it may be a horizon roughly corresponding to a period in which positions may be liquidated in an orderly day, which could be just one day for highly liquid markets, or a week or more for larger positions in illiquid markets.Therefore statements I and III are true and the others are false. Therefore the only correct answer is Choice 'b'.
NEW QUESTION 205
Which loss event type is the failure to timely deliver collateral classified as under the Basel II framework?
- A. External fraud
- B. Information security
- C. Execution, Delivery & Process Management
- D. Clients, products and business practices
Answer: C
Explanation:
Explanation
Refer to the detailed loss event type classification under Basel II (see Annex 9 of the accord). You should know the exact names of all loss event types, and examples of each.
NEW QUESTION 206
A stock's volatility under EWMA is estimated at 3.5% on a day its price is $10. The next day, the price moves to $11. What is the EWMA estimate of the volatility the next day? Assume the persistence parameter = 0.93.
- A. 0.0224
- B. 0.0018
- C. 0.0429
- D. 0.0421
Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation
The correct answer is choice 'a'
Recall the formula for calculating variance under EWMA. See below. Therefore the correct answer is
=SQRT((1 - 0.93)*(LN(11/10))^2 + 0.93*((3.5%^2))) = 4.21%. Other answers are incorrect. Note that continuous returns are to be used, ie ln(11/10) and not discrete returns (=1/10) - though generally the difference between the two is small over short time periods. (If in the exam the answer doesn't exactly match, try using discrete returns.)
NEW QUESTION 207
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